MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-08-19T00:18:32
High energy flux, observed by GOES-16, is expected to be mostly at background. However, after the easing of recent slightly elevated winds from the CME arrival on 17 Aug, there is a chance of moderate levels returning, perhaps approaching High at diurnal peak.
The associated 24 hour electron fluence is forecast to remain below Active, but could see a rising trend later in the period. MOSWOC REFM has a short-term increasing trend, which is currently not expected, with any enhancement expected to be more gradual over the period, if it does occur at all.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-08-19T00:18:32 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |