Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-08-20T00:09:59

The high energy electron forecast is of low confidence, but likely little import. Current Normal Background levels should show an uptick within the first 24 hours as the outer Van Allen belt perhaps restores to encompass GEO, with diurnal Moderate levels becoming increasingly Likely. Despite this increase, the chances of 24-hour integrated Active fluence are still deemed low, and may possibly be interrupted by minor geomagnetic activity later in the coming UTC working week.

MOSWOC REFM is not felt likely to offer useful guidance in its 72-hour range, owing to the non-persistent nature of CH60/+ and the possible presence of a glancing incidence (17 August) CME.