MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-07-21T00:06:14
The high energy electron flux as observed by GOES-16 is currently at background and is expected to persist at this level given the lack of any notable source of enhancement. The CME that is expected to arrive on Day 3 (23 July) has the potential to increase significantly the solar wind speed however, it will most likely take another day for the Van Halen belts to replenish and reach Moderate or even High levels. In other words, the Fluence is very unlikely to see the Active threshold being breached during this period and the latest MOSWOC REFM is considered to provide good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-07-21T00:06:14 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |