MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-07-14T00:31:02
High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, is currently at Background, but is likely to see a modest increase later in the period due to the expected fast wind enhancement from CH52/+. This is expected to occur through day 1 (14 Jul), with any fast wind influence then easing day 2 (15 Jul onward). Moderate high energy electron flux is then likely, with a slight chance of reaching High later in the period.
The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold however, with only a very slight chance of rising above from late day 2 onward. REFM is currently providing good guidance, at least for day 1 and into day 2 (Jul 14-15). Confidence in the REFM forecast then falls due to any potential fast wind enhancement.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-07-14T00:31:02 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |