Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-07-15T00:11:14

High energy electron flux is now considered less likely to show any notable response to any eventual fast wind from CH52/+, for this feature being overdue and therefore of lower magnitude. There are then likely no further drivers to change counts at GEO until after any possible onset of CH54/-, however with this potentially due on or around Thursday 18 July, any eventual uptick in fluence will most likely fall outside this 96-hour window.

For what it's worth, recent MOSWOC REFM runs are considered to be offering reasonable guidance in their continuing flat forecast trend, although in this case its utility is limited as there are no expected mechanisms to alter the current sub-Active conditions.