Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-07-22T00:02:58

The high energy electron flux as observed by GOES16 is currently at Normal Background and is expected to persist at this level initially given the lack of any notable sources of enhancement. The two CMEs that are expected to arrive (on Day 2 and Day 3) have the potential to significantly increase counts in the Van Allen belts however this is unlikely to happen before Day 4 (25 July) since the peak of the geomagnetic activity is expected to take place on Day 3 (24 July).

The current high energy electron flux is also at such low level that any significant increase in fluence is most likely to occur outside of the forecast period.