Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-07-29T00:15:58

High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, is expected to be at background levels for much of the period. The recent CME and potential fast wind enhancement may have caused an increase in electron flux below GEO, but the potential for further CME arrivals into the period could suppress this once again. Overall, electron flux is most likely to stay at background levels, but as the solar wind speeds decline there is the possibility of an increase to peak at moderate levels at times as has been observed in the past 24 hours.

The associated electron fluence is most likely to persist below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). The latest MOSWOC REFM output is forecasting a rising trend below Active, which is viewed as relatively good guidance though with lower than usual confidence given the potential for further CME influence.