MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-08-05T00:14:11
High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, is currently at background levels having been suppressed at GEO by the CME arrivals. In the abscence of HSSs observed flux will probably remain near background levels however this is balanced by the recent CME activity which is likely to have caused an increase in electron flux below GEO.
The associated 24hr electron fluence is most likely to remain below Active (1e8 integrated pfu).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-08-05T00:14:11 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |