MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-08-06T00:11:11
High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES16, is currently at Normal Background levels, however some enhancement has likely occurred below GEO due to the recent activity from the CME arrival on 04 August. In the absence of any notable fast wind arrivals, the observed flux is expected to remain at or near current levels, perhaps rising to Moderate as the Van Allen Belts relax outward.
The associated 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain below Active (1e8 integrated pfu), but perhaps with a slight rising trend, as indicated in MOSWOC REFM.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-08-06T00:11:11 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |