MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-08-07T00:09:10
High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, is currently at background. In the absence of any notable fast wind arrivals, the observed flux is expected to remain at or near background levels, perhaps rising to Moderate at diurnal peak as the Van Allen Belts relax outward after the CME arrival on 04 Aug.
The associated 24hr electron fluence is expected to remain below Active (1e8 integrated pfu), but perhaps with a slight rising trend, as indicated in MOSWOC REFM.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-08-07T00:09:10 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |