MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-09-06T00:31:36
High energy electron flux as observed by GOES-16 has been at background to moderate levels. Any weak HSS from CH65 may result in a slight increase in the electron flux, with levels becoming mainly moderate, with a slight chance of reaching high levels.
Overall, the 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, although with perhaps with a rising trend later in the period after any HSS from CH65 starts to ease. Therefore, there is a slight chance of exceeding the Active threshold by the end of the period. MOSWOC REFM will not be taking into account the upcoming potential HSS, but the overal trend of the fluence remaining below Active is accepted.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-09-06T00:31:36 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |