Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-09-05T00:16:08

High energy electron flux as observed by GOES-16 has behaved as expected, venturing briefly into high levels during its diurnal cycle before coming back to background later on. The recent arrival of a CME will most likely disperse the electron in the short term, leading to a sharp drop in numbers. Depending on the level of the geomagnetic response, it may then drive an increase in electron flux later in the period but confidence is low and any incursion into high levels should be minor and brief.

Overall, the 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold for much of this period, perhaps with a rising trend much later if we do see a geomagnetic response. Therefore, there is a slight chance of exceeding the Active threshold by the end of the period. MOSWOC REFM is showing the most likely forecast, below Active, but will not be taking into account any CME arrival.