MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-09-12T00:19:53
The high energy electron flux is currently at background, with no fast wind likely to charge the Van Allen belts during this period. The 10 Sept CME (expected on Day 2) may be able to drive a minor increase on Day 3 but nothing significant enough to threaten the corresponding Active 24-hour fluence which remains well below threshold.
All considered, the chances of Active 24-hour fluence are very low throughout.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-09-12T00:19:53 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |