Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-09-19T00:13:55

Following the arrival of the CME late on 16 Sep, high energy electron flux levels were suppressed to background. A recovery is currently underway with fluctuations between moderate and background and an overall rising trend is expected to see the diurnal pattern return to moderate with peaks at high during diurnal maximum.

There is a slight chance that potential HSS influence into the period it may act to further suppress and delay the electron flux recovery. This lowers confidence in the forecast values into the period.

The forecast is therefore uncertain, but fluence values are anticipated to slowly rise into the period, with a chance of rising above the Active threshold into Days 3 and 4 (21-22 Sep). MOSWOC REFM is not considered to be offering significantly useful guidance given the dominance of recent CME influences.