MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-09-13T00:34:01
The high energy electron flux is currently at background. Recent CME arrival will have suppress the observed counts at GEO, although some charging is likely at lower orbits. With a further CME arrival anticipated later day 2 or early day 3 (13-14 Sep), and the potential for onset of coronal hole fast winds day 3 (15 Sep), any periods of Moderate flux at GEO are expected to be brief, with mainly Background flux persisting.
The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active level, as shown by the MOSWOC REFM, although the increasing trend that is indicated is not expected.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-09-13T00:34:01 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |