MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-08-14T00:14:28
High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, is currently at background. The recent Strong and Severe geomagnetic storming on 12 Aug may see electron flux at GEO increase in time to moderate or even high levels given the potential for electron transfer from currently more highly changed regions below GEO.
The associated 24hr electron fluence is therefore currently expected to remain below Active (1e8 integrated pfu) levels throughout but with reducing confidence into the period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-08-14T00:14:28 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |