MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-08-21T00:13:30
The high energy electron forecast is of low confidence. Current background electron flux levels are now considered likely to remain that way after recent CME effects, as the solar winds have now returned to background levels. Upcoming potential CME and HSS influence is expected to keep flux levels at background throughout the period.
As such, the fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) through the rest of this period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-08-21T00:13:30 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |