MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-08-29T00:35:30
High energy electron flux as observed by GOES-16 is currently at background levels, and is likely to remain that way during this period. No significant wind speed increases are anticipated until potentially the very end of the period, with any rises in electron flux not expected until after the end of Day 4 (01 Sep).
Fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through the period. MOSWOC REFM is suggesting a similar story with below Active fluence, which is accepted.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-08-29T00:35:30 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |