MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-08-30T00:29:52
High energy electron flux as observed by GOES-16 is currently at background. No significant wind speed increases are anticipated, in the period with any coronal hole sourced enhancements expected to be weak. However, the recent coronal mass ejection arrival may have resulted in an increase in electron counts at lower orbits, which have the potential to relax toward GEO. Background flux is most likely to continue but with a chance of periods of Moderate at diurnal max.
Fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through the period, with MOSWOC REFM currently giving good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-08-30T00:29:52 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |