MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-08-23T00:13:46
Current predominantly background electron flux levels are considered likely to continue albeit with a likely rising trend due to potential HSS (High Speed Stream) influence, with an increase to near high diurnal levels possible later in the period.
Fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) through the period but with a rising trend expected. MOSWOC REFM looks to be providing reasonable guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-08-23T00:13:46 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |