MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-07-31T00:15:52
High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, is currently at background levels after being suppressed by the CME arrival late on 29 July. Further CME arrivals are anticipated to keep the observed flux at background, but may allow for a re-enhancement once any CME influence recedes, with Moderate flux possible Day 3-4 (02-03 Aug).
The associated 24 hr electron fluence is expected to remain below Active. MOSWOC REFM is currently providing a reasonable guide, but confidence in this becomes Low with any further CME arrival on 31 Jul.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-07-31T00:15:52 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |