Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-08-01T00:12:23

High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, is currently at background levels after being suppressed by the CME arrival late on 29 July. Further CME arrivals are likely to keep the observed flux near background levels in the short term, but recent CME activity may have caused an increase in electron flux below GEO. Assuming CME influence wanes later in the period (an assumption where confidence is low), this may allow for an increase in electron flux later in the period, with moderate or perhaps even high flux possible at the diurnal peak on Days 3-4 (03-04 Aug).

The associated 24hr electron fluence is likely to remain below Active (1e8 integrated pfu), although with the potential for a rising trend later in the period. There is a slight chance of exceeding Active by Day 4. MOSWOC REFM is currently suggesting below Active through the next three days, which is reasonable, but confidence becomes increasingly low given uncertainties in CME influence.