Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-07-02T00:08:54

High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, is expected to continue at background levels for the start of the period. The recent CME enhancement may have caused an increase in electron flux below GEO, but the potential for further CME arrivals could suppress this once again. Overall, electron flux is most likely to stay at background levels, but as the solar wind speeds decline there is the possibility of an increase to peak at moderate levels at times. 

Associated electron fluence is most likely to persist below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), but with a slight chance of an increase above Active later in the period. MOSWOC REFM is forecasting a below Active trend through the next three days, which reflects the most probable outcome, although very dependent on potential CME arrivals, which are currently in the forecast.