Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-07-03T00:01:47

High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, has been at background to moderate levels over the last 24 hours, peaking at 641pfu at 02/1720 UTC. This was due to the relaxation of the Van Allen belts following the recent CME enhancement. Another potential source of enhancement lies in the expected arrival of a CME on Day 1 (03 Jul). However, confidence is low with regards to the impact and the most likely scenario at present is for the electron flux to remain at background or moderate levels, with perhaps a slight rising trend.

Should the impact materialise, there will most likely be a rise in the electron flux after a day or two. This would probably take it to high levels but the associated electron fluence is currently so low that it would take several days for it to reach the Active threshold.        

Associated electron fluence is most likely to persist below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), but with just a slight chance of an increase above Active. MOSWOC REFM is forecasting a below Active trend through the next three days, which reflects the most probable outcome.