Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-07-04T00:17:12

High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, was generally at moderate levels, with a brief spell at high over the last 24 hours, peaking at 1190pfu at 03/1905 UTC. This was due to the relaxation of the Van Allen belts following the CME enhancement on 28 June, combined with a lack of suppression from any CME over the past couple of days. There remains a slight chance of this CME suppressing electron flux on day 1 (Jul 04). Otherwise, electron flux is most likely to continue to peak at moderate or perhaps high levels over the coming days, with a gradual decreasing trend.

Associated electron fluence is most likely to persist below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), with a daily slight chance of an increase above Active. MOSWOC REFM is forecasting a below Active trend through the next three days, which reflects the most probable outcome.