Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-07-05T00:14:12

The new calendar month has seen a day-on-day rise in high energy electron flux recorded at GOES16, although the current diurnal trend appears to show that this has saturated at mainly Moderate to background levels. 

With the strong possibility of no further drivers for increasing electron populations in the period, the most probable evolution is for a very slow erosion of the current GOES16 trace in the slow solar wind environment. The main question mark as to this continuing is the possible presence of CH49/+ over the UTC weekend, with uncertainty increasing as levels perhaps take a temporary dip at GEO, with a uncertain but probably muted recovery in fluence into the new UTC working week. MOSWOC REFM is considered good guidance for a slight reduction in fluence over the coming days.