Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-07-06T00:19:30

High energy electron flux recorded at GOES16, has shown muted activity and with the strong possibility of no further drivers for increasing electron populations in the period, the most probable evolution is for a slow erosion of the current GOES16 trace in the slow solar wind environment. The main question mark as to this continuing is the possible presence of CH49/+ over the UTC weekend, with uncertainty increasing as levels perhaps take a temporary dip at GEO, with an uncertain but probably muted recovery in fluence into the new UTC working week.

The MOSWOC REFM output is considered good guidance, with a generally flat trend indicated through the guidance period.