MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-07-07T00:16:12
High energy electron flux recorded at GOES16 has been at background levels and is likely to remain that way through the coming four days. Any fast wind influence from CH49/+, should it occur, is likely to be limited and therefore is not expected to drive any significant increase in electron flux. A more likely fast wind from CH51/- is not expected until Day 4 (10 Jul), with any response to this feature not expected until after the end of this period.
The MOSWOC REFM output is considered good guidance, with a generally flat trend indicated through the guidance period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-07-07T00:16:12 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |