MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-07-11T12:24:04
High energy electron flux observed at GOES16 has been at background is expected to persist at this level, until at least day 4 (14 Jul). Any enhancement from the fast wind of CH52 on day 3 (13 Jul) may then allow for an increase to Moderate, perhaps briefly High flux.
The associated electron fluence is forecast to remain below the Active threshold, but with the potential for a rising trend day 4 (14 Jul). MOSWOC REFM is currently giving good guidance, and is expected to remain so until the onset of any fast winds.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-07-11T12:24:04 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |