MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-06-12T00:08:04
The high energy electron flux is expected to persist at generally background levels for much of this period with limited significant sources of enhancement expected. Some diurnal Moderate flux values becoming likely into the period however.
MOSWOC REFM output has been erroneously forecasting fluence above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level through the 11 Jun, but more recent output sees fluence expected to remain below Active throughout and is viewed as providing better guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-06-12T00:08:04 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |