MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-07-18T12:21:53
The high energy electron flux as observed by GOES-16 is expected to remain at background. Any subsequent fast wind connection may lead to flux rising to give spells of Moderate day 2 (19 Jul), however any increase is likely to quickly be suppressed by the onset of any CME arrival later that day or on day 3 (20 Jul).
The associated electron fluence is expected to persist below the Active level with MOSWOC REFM currently providing good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-07-18T12:21:53 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |