Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-07-19T12:07:05

The high energy electron flux as observed by GOES16 is expected to remain at Normal Background levels. The main forecast driver for any deviation from this forecast is now not likely to occur to any significant degree (i.e CH54/- is relatively slow and subdued, as well as being of marginal influence if even present). In any case, increases in the flux are likely to quickly be suppressed by the expected increase in geomagnetic activity associated with the UTC weekend's CME arrivals.

The associated 24-hour electron fluence is expected to persist well below the Active level, albeit with reducing confidence into the new UTC working week. The latest MOSWOC REFM persists with its ideas of sub-Active fluence, although this is only a realistic signal prior to any CME influence.