Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-08-18T00:22:01

High energy flux, observed by GOES-16, is most likely to continue at background at first, with recent CME arrival likely having subdued any Moderate electron flux that may have been induced after the geomagnetic storming on 12 Aug. However, as slightly elevated current solar winds ease, there is a chance of moderate levels returning, perhaps approaching High at diurnal peak. 

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is forecast to remain below Active, but could see a rising trend later in the period. MOSWOC REFM is currently showing a relatively flat trend, however this likely isn't taking account of the recent elevated solar winds from the CME arrival, and possible coronal hole interaction.