MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-07-11T00:10:29
High energy electron flux recorded at GOES16 has been at mostly background levels and is expected to remain that way for much of the forecast period. Later in the period, the arrival of coronal hole fast winds may serve to suppress and charge the Van Allen belts, perhaps leading to a rise in flux towards the end of this forecast period. MOSWOC REFM output is considered good guidance, with a generally flat trend indicated through the period, well below the Active 1e8 integrated flux threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-07-11T00:10:29 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |