Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-08-02T00:18:43

High energy electron flux levels, as observed by GOES-16, is currently at background having been suppressed by recent CME arrivals. Further CME arrivals are likely to keep the observed flux near background levels in the short term, but recent CME activity is likely to have caused an increase in electron flux below GEO. Assuming CME influence wanes later in the period (an assumption where confidence is low), this will probably be reflected in an increase in electron flux later in the period, with moderate or perhaps high flux becoming possible at the diurnal peak on Days 2-4 (03-05 Aug).

The associated 24hr electron fluence is most likely to remain below Active (1e8 integrated pfu), although with the potential for a rising trend later in the period. There is a slight chance of exceeding Active by Day 4. MOSWOC REFM output suggests below Active through the period, which is reasonable, but confidence becomes increasingly low.