Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-07-30T00:15:22

High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, is expected to be at background levels for much of the period. Recent fast wind enhancement did bring a small enhancement to Moderate levels at diurnal peak, however CME arrivals anticipated on days 1-2 (30-31 Jul) are likely to cause the observed flux at GEO to decline to background. There is some potential for a slight recovery as any CME influence recedes, however this is very low confidence, with mainly background levels most likely to persist 

The associated 24 hr electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active level. Due to the expected CME arrivals MOSWOC REFM is likely to be variable in effectiveness, but providing good guidance until these occur.