Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-07-28T00:18:22

High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, is expected to remain at background levels for the start of the period. The recent CME and potential fast wind enhancement may have caused an increase in electron flux below GEO, but the potential for further CME arrivals into the period could suppress this once again. Overall, electron flux is most likely to stay at background levels, but as the solar wind speeds decline there is the possibility of an increase to peak at moderate or perhaps high levels at times.

The associated electron fluence is most likely to persist below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), but with the potential for a rising trend during the period. The latest MOSWOC REFM output is forecasting a rising trend below Active, which is viewed as generally good guidance though with lower than usual confidence given the potential for further CME influence.