Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-06-22T00:29:18

High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, reached predominantly moderate levels as a consequence of the relaxation of the Van Allen belts following the fast wind enhancement from CH45/+. Electron flux is likely to continue at mainly moderate levels on days 1 and 2 (22 and 23 Jun), perhaps briefly reaching high levels at diurnal maxima, before declining later in the period to become mainly background. A more pronounced decline would be expected on days 1 and 2 should the potential connection to CH46/- occur.

Despite the recent increase, associated electron fluence is expected to persist well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), with MOSWOC REFM output considered to be good guidance.