MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-09-15T00:20:52
The high energy electron flux has been rising to Moderate levels during the recent diurnal maximums due to recent geomagnetic storming that took place on 12 Sep. Now with at least two further CME arrivals anticipated and up to two coronal hols fast wind arrivals in the period, any rise is expected to be brief and the high energy flux most likely to stay close to Background levels.
The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active level. The latest MOSWOC REFM output is currently showing a rise, however this is misleading as it isn't taking into account any CME impacts or possible coronal hole interactions.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-09-15T00:20:52 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |