MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-03-02T00:43:39
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently at background levels. With the absence of significant coronal holes in the forecast, and only glancing CME influence expected, little change is forecast.
The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to stay well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. MOSWOC REFM is currently thought to be giving reasonable guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-03-02T00:43:39 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |