Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-03-24T05:11:47

GOES16 high energy electron flux is expected to remain at Background levels from the next few days with the current connection with the HSS in association with CH12/- and CME impacts late Day 1 or early Day 2 (23-24 Mar). Once any associated geomagnetic activity eases, the electron flux at GEO is likely to rise to Moderate, with a Slight Chance of reaching High into the new UTC working week. This is low confidence however, as the main expected source, coronal hole CH12/-, is a largely persistent feature and no electron flux enhancement was observed on the previous rotation.

The most likely state of affairs is for the associated 24-hour fluence to remain below the Active threshold, with MOSWOC REFM providing generally good guidance. Fluence is likely to rise a little into the new UTC week, but only a Slight Chance of reaching Active fluence by the end of the period.