MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-03-17T13:39:16
No significant fast wind enhancements are expected during the period. MOSWOC REFM indicates as such, although this must be treated with some caution given the possible polluting influence of glancing CMEs in the period reducing confidence somewhat.
There is the potential for a more Earth-directed CME to arrive later in the period, after a recent large filament lift-off near south-centre disc at 17/0230UTC, which is currently under-going analysis. Awaiting results for any potential arrival, probably late in the period, days 3 or 4 (19-20 Mar), with a slight chance of seeing an increase in electron flux ahead of any potential CME arrival.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-03-17T13:39:16 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |