Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-03-10T12:07:32

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been background to Moderate levels in the slightly elevated solar wind environment. This high speed stream is expected to input electrons into the radiation belts, and with speeds around 430km/s, there is likely to be only limited distortion of the belts, with steady build of electron flux, and an increasing risk of exceeding the high threshold through the period. There is also a risk of two CME arrivals, one due on 10 March and one on 11 March, and should either of these arrive, they could complicate the forecast with a consequential distortion of the radiation belts and increase in the geomagnetic activity initially redistributing any electrons.

In the absence of any CME arrivals, the electron fluence is expected in rise, with an increasing risk of reaching the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) by the end of the period.