Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-03-11T13:33:24

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at mainly moderate levels in the presence of a slightly elevated but declining high speed stream. A further high speed stream may connect on 11 March, but this is a weak feature, so the magnitude of any high speed stream is uncertain. A potential CME arrival on 11 March and uncertainty around CMEs later in the period complicate the evolution of the forecast, but the continued anticipated input of electrons into the radiation belts is likely to lead to an eventual increased risk of reaching the high threshold. 

Electron fluence is expected to increase through the period on a fitful trend based on potential impacts to the electron flux. There is a likelihood that the Active threshold will be approached but not exceeded during the period.