MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-04-11T00:07:50
High energy electron flux is currently at normal background, reaching moderate levels diurnally with this pattern expected to continue into the period in the absence of significant external factors with any high speed streams expected to be minor; lacking the impetus necessary to significantly increase electron populations at GEO. Electron fluence is likewise forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout the period, with MOSWOC REFM giving reasonable guidance, suggesting the potential for a slight rise during Days 1-2 (11-12 Apr) before reverting to a flat trend.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-04-11T00:07:50 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |