Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-03-12T13:17:07

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has shown a slight reaction to the recent CH07/- fast wind in flux levels rising from Normal Background to eventually exceed High on the afternoon of the 11th March. While it is still possible that this enhancement has yet to fully mature, in all likelihood current levels are probably near equilibrium and 24-hour integrated fluence may well fall a little short of Active. The probabilities of exceedance probably peak prior to midweek UTC and any CME influence from the 10 March M7.4, with a slight reduction possible to see out the working week.