MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-03-19T00:42:20
GOES-16 electron flux is expected to remain at mostly background levels, with no significant sources of enhancement expected. Current CME impacts may lead to brief moderate flux, however the slow wind speeds mean this is unlikely. A further likely CME arrival is expected on Day 2 (20 Mar) and into Day 3 (21 Mar), however this is also likely to only have a minimal impact on the observed electron flux.
The associated 24 fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, with MOSWOC REFM in agreement and providing good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-03-19T00:42:20 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |