Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-03-09T01:00:19

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has varied between Normal Background and Moderate levels, and is expected to remain so through much of the forecast period. The main drivers for any change to the current steady state are the fast wind regime and then up to two CME arrivals.

The fast wind regime from CH06/- appears to be have peaked between 500-550 km/s. The peak potency of this feature is rendered more difficult to assess as it was not present on last rotation, however the possibility of further slight rises in solar wind speed is the rationale for the very slight increase in risk into the coming UTC weekend. This will be complicated by the possible 05 March CME arrival early in this timeframe, ahead of a further possible redistribution of electrons come Monday 11 March should the 07 March CME arrive. The high speed stream from CH06/- is expected to charge the electron belts, whereas any CME may 'snowplough' these electros away from their orbits.

The presence of up to two transients in the period now renders MOSWOC REFM less useful, however the most likely forecast remains a continuation of the now long-term habit of sub-Active 24-hour integrated electron fluence.