Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-03-27T12:39:24

GOES16 high energy electron flux is at background levels currently given the likely ongoing connection to the HSS of CH12/- and recent strong CME passage. As geomagnetic activity and solar wind speeds likely ease over the next few days the electron flux at GEO is expected to quickly rise to Moderate or High levels. 

The associated 24-hour fluence is currently below the Active threshold. Fluence is expected to rise sharply in the coming days with active fluence becoming increasingly likely. MOSWOC REFM output shows very high levels of forecast fluence day 1 (26 Mar), this is viewed as unlikely given likely ongoing fast solar winds. However, an increase in Fluence above the active threshold into days 3 and 4 (28-29 Mar) is accepted as good guidance.