MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-02-29T00:35:26
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently at background levels. Recent fast wind enhancement from CH01/- and potential current minor enhancement from CH03/- are both relatively weak affairs, despite the observed G1/Minor Storm on 27 Feb, and the GOES-16 electron flux is expected to persist at background levels. No further notable enhancements are forecast.
The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to stay well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, with REFM currently giving good guidance to expected conditions.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-02-29T00:35:26 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |